Lotteries and Possibilities for 2015

Time to start seeing what my 2015 racing season is going to look like!

Tomorrow is the Hardrock 100 lottery. With 2 tickets in the draw, I have a 2.5% chance of winning a spot in Hardrock next year. I have mixed feelings either way this shakes out. If I fail to get in, I can save my money for other races, like the USA Triathlon Nationals. If I do get in, however, I'll definitely accept the coveted spot in one of the toughest footraces in the world.

The other lottery that I'm in, the UTMB, doesn't draw until February. With that lottery I have a very good shot of getting in. Second year participants usually enjoy a more than 50% chance at getting in. I'm seriously wanting to get into this race next year.

So this leaves 4 possibilities on how the season shakes out.

1) I win both Hardrock and UTMB.

If by some miracle I get into both UTMB and UTMB next year, my season is set. Those are the races I'll be gunning for next year. My budget my be a bit stressed on this, but I think I can stretch the money far in case of this possibility.

2) I win Hardrock but not UTMB.

I would definitely focus on Hardrock, but I will need all 8 points to get into UTMB the following year. Rocky Raccoon will supply 3. If I complete Hardrock that would give me 4, but Hardrock is so tough that there's a good possibility that I won't finish the race, so I'll need another 3 or 4 point 100 miler to cover this race. Maybe Javelina would help here. The remaining 1-2 points can be made in any 50 mile race, North Face would be ideal here.

3) I don't win Hardrock but win UTMB.

I'll need a Hardrock Qualifier race in order to continue accumulating tickets for the Hardrock lottery. I'm currently lookint at Cruel Jewel 100 in May to cover that.

4) I don't win either lottery.

The worst of all scenarios, I'll have to get both 8 points AND complete a Hardrock qualifier. I might have to go out west and try for Bighorn or The Bear 100. That would give me the qualifier for the next Hardrock lottery and give me 4 points towards UTMB. With Rocky Raccoon, that would give me 7 points, and all I would need is a 1 point race to give me 8 for UTMB.


So here goes! Tomorrow is the Hardrock lottery, and 2 of these possibilities will be eliminated tomorrow. Which two? I will know in 24 hours.